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Russian President Vladimir Putin declined Donald Trump’s bid for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, agreeing instead to limit attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure while demanding that the US and other nations stop the flow of weapons and intelligence to the neighbor his military invaded. In response, the Ukrainian President Zelenskiy stated that recent developments show that Russia is not ready for a ceasefire.
7 Hours ago
The OECD has stated that global GDP growth is projected to moderate from 3.2% in 2024, to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with higher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty weighing on investment and household spending. Downgrades have been made to the US economy from 2.4% to 2.2% for 2025. India growth projections have been lowered from 6.9% to 6.4% for 2025. Inflation is projected to be higher than previously expected, although still moderating as economic growth softens. Headline inflation is projected to fall from 3.8% in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026 in the G20 economies.
1 Days ago
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently held a “forward-looking” discussion with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, focusing on advancing a mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement. Goyal emphasised that India’s approach will align with the principles of “India First,” “Viksit Bharat,” and the nation’s Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
2 Days ago
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CENTRAL BANK ZONE
Reserve Bank of India
The MPC cut repo rate by 25bps, the first cut in almost 5 years and after a pause of 2 years given the confidence on inflation aligning with target so as to support growth. Stance was maintained at neutral given volatility in global financial markets on the back of uncertainty about global trade policies which pose risk to growth and inflation
Growth projection for FY26 was lowered to 6.7% (October MPR estimate: 7.1%) given the slowdown in urban demand even as Budget is likely to support consumption and investments. Inflation is increasingly aligning with target on the back of correction in vegetable prices and good monsoon. For FY26, inflation is projected at 4.2% which is higher than earlier forecast on the back of depreciation pressure seen in INR and higher commodity prices. The Governor emphasized that RBI will maintain a proactive approach in providing durable and overnight liquidity
A key headwind to policy easing is global volatility induced by reciprocal tariffs by US. However, given tariffs weaken growth prospects, a monetary push would be desirable
Overall quantum of rate cuts expected by MPC is 75bps given real rate of 1.5% and projected inflation of 4.2% in FY26. Post April, the timing of rate cut is a bit uncertain but what is more certain that RBI is far more supportive of liquidity to ensure transmission of rate cuts
Federal Reserve
In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC eased policy rates by 25bps in November while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. The Fed Chair emphasized that more easing could be required to bring the policy rate towards its neutral level.
The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the December policy meeting, although it remains a close call. The FOMC is expected to signal to the market that it will resort to a staggered easing path.
We expect aa further cumulative 100bps worth of easing over 2024 and 2025 resulting in a terminal rate of 3.50%-3.75%
Bank of England
In its policy meeting in November, the BoE cut policy rates by 25bps and re-affirmed that it will resort to a staggered easing profile.
In its next policy meeting in December, the BoE is expected to maintain status quo while providing an unchanged guidance.
The BoE is expected to cut rates by a cumulative 100bps over 2025 and a further 50bps over 2026.
European Central Bank
In the policy meeting in October, the ECB cut rates by 25bps while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. However, it indicated that further easing could continue reflecting concerns about the growth outlook.
In its policy meeting in December, concerns about disinflation and growth could prompt the ECB to cut rates by 25bps.
Our base-case for the ECB the policy rate by a further cumulative 125bps resulting in a terminal rate of 1.75%.
People's Bank of China
The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum down-payment ratio from 25% to 15%.
We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/Calendar_events_19march.csv
MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR
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05:20 am
Trade Balance (JPY bn)Japan
584.5Actual
722.8Forecast
-2736.6Prior
05:20 am
Exports (% YoY)Japan
11.4Actual
12.1Forecast
7.3Prior
05:20 am
Imports (% YoY)Japan
-0.7Actual
0.1Forecast
16.2Prior
08:30 am
BoJ Interest Rate DecisionJapan
Actual
0.005Forecast
0.005Prior
10:00 am
Industrial Production (% MoM)Japan
Actual
-1.1Forecast
-1.1Prior
10:00 am
Industrial Production (% YoY)Japan
Actual
--Forecast
0.026Prior
10:00 am
Capacity Utilization (% MoM)Japan
Actual
--Forecast
-0.2Prior
11:30 am
Machine Tool Orders (% YoY)Japan
4.4Actual
--Forecast
0.035Prior
12:00 pm
BoJ Press Conference Japan
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03:30 pm
CPI (% YoY)Euro Zone
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FOMC Statement United States
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{"GLOBAL FX PROJECTIONS":[{"title":"USD/INR","first":"86.50-87.50","second":"87.50-88.50","third":"88.50-89.50","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"EUR/USD","first":"1.06-1.08","second":"1.08-1.10","third":"1.09-1.11","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"GBP/USD","first":"1.27-1.29","second":"1.29-1.31","third":"1.31-1.33","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"USD/JPY","first":"146.00-148.00","second":"144.00-146.00","third":"142.00-144.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"AUD/USD","first":"0.62-0.64","second":"0.62-0.64","third":"0.64-0.66","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"USD/CNY","first":"7.20-7.30","second":"7.25-7.35","third":"7.30-7.40","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"INDIA INTEREST RATES":[{"title":"Repo rate (%)","first":"6.25","second":"6.00","third":"6.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"SDF (%)","first":"6.00","second":"5.75","third":"5.75","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"10-year benchmark (%)","first":"6.70","second":"6.60","third":"6.60","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"GLOBAL RATES":[{"title":"UST 2 year (%)","first":"4.00-4.20","second":"3.90-4.10","third":"3.80-4.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"UST 10 year (%)","first":"4.20-4.40","second":"4.20-4.40","third":"4.10-4.30","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"German bund 10 year (%)","first":"2.30-2.50","second":"2.10-2.30","third":"2.00-2.20","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"JPY 10 year (%)","first":"1.30-1.50","second":"1.40-1.60","third":"1.50-1.70","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"UK 10 year (%)","first":"4.45-4.65","second":"4.35-4.55","third":"4.25-4.45","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"COMMODITIES":[{"title":"Brent crude (USD/bbl)","first":"75","second":"74","third":"72","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"Gold (USD/oz)","first":"2680","second":"2740","third":"2800","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}]}
IN-HOUSE VIEWS
Last updated: 13 february 2025
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Q12025
Q22025
Q32025
Q12025
Q22025
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USD/INR
86.50-87.50
87.50-88.50
88.50-89.50
EUR/USD
1.06-1.08
1.08-1.10
1.09-1.11
GBP/USD
1.27-1.29
1.29-1.31
1.31-1.33
USD/JPY
146.00-148.00
144.00-146.00
142.00-144.00
AUD/USD
0.62-0.64
0.62-0.64
0.64-0.66
USD/CNY
7.20-7.30
7.25-7.35
7.30-7.40
