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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

RBI bulletin for November pegs India’s Q2 growth at 6.7%, lower from MPC estimate at 7% and 7.6% for Q3 (MPC- 7.4%). On Inflation the Bulletin cited that apart from the sharp surge in the momentum of food prices, core inflation has edged up. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran believes that inflation in October 2024 was primarily driven by key commodities like tomatoes, onions, potatoes, gold, and silver. Retail inflation in October stood at 6.2%. These items, which make up just 3.4% of the CPI basket, accounted for over one-third of the 6.2% inflation rate.

9 Hours ago

A tight US labor market is still adding to inflationary pressures, though less so than it did in 2022 and 2023, according to research published on Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey Quarterly Bulletin, unemployment rate in urban areas declined to 6.4% in September 2024 from 6.6% in June 2024. Labour force participation rate in urban areas increased to 50.4% in the September 2024 from 50.1% in the June 2024.

2 Days ago

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

In the October Policy meeting, the MPC kept the policy rate unchanged with a 5:1 majority and unanimously changed stance to neutral. Stance change is supportive of growth going forward and shows MPC is confident of aligning inflation to target (4%) over the medium-term.

While growth and inflation estimates have been kept unchanged for FY25, there is a change in quarterly trajectory with near-term growth revised lower and medium-term revised higher. In case of inflation, March 2025 and 2026 prints are benign at 4.2% and 4.1% respectively. The downward revision in medium-term inflation forecasts shows MPC believes food inflation should ease on the back of above normal monsoon this year and gives it room to support growth when a few data prints have been underwhelming.

US yields have surged after US elections with clear steepening bias visible and dollar is stronger. Given such a move in US yields, it is not easy for MPC to cut rates particularly when inflation is on the higher side of its tolerance band .This makes a case for MPC to move in Feb or Apr but it has ample of room to sound dovish on rates front in the policy in particular when FY25 growth estimate might be revised lower given H1 growth is lower than RBI’s forecast

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC commenced easing with an aggressive 50bps rate cut as it indicated that its focus has shifted to deterioration in the labour market and as disinflation was taking hold. While it indicated that future actions would remain data-dependent, it signalled via the 'dot-plot' that easing would continue over 2024 to 2026.

The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the November policy meeting with a risk of it easing policy by 50bps if economic indicators weaken sharply.

We expect a cumulative 225bps worth of easing by the FOMC over 2024 and 2025 assuming that a 'soft-landing' unfolds.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in September, the BoE maintained status quo while signalling that it could ease further at a gradual pace of inflation shows continued signs of softneing further.

In its next policy meeting in November, the BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bps if as we expect services inflation moderates and labour market re-balancing continues to remain in place.

The BoE is expected to cut rates by 50bps in 2024 and by 100bps in 2025.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in September, the ECB cut the policy rate by 25bps while indicating that future actions would remain data dependent. It described the risks to the growth outlook being to the downside and risks to inflation outlook as 'balanced'.

Given the much sharper weakening in economic indicators, we see a case for the ECB to cut rates by 25bps in its October policy meeting.

Our base-case for the ECB easing the policy rate by 75bps over 2024 and 100bps in 2025 in response to below trend growth and easing in inflation pressures over the medium term.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum downpayment ratio from 25% to 15%.

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

Market Outlook & ICICI Direct Tools

16 Nov 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Views on the global economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Views on the Indian economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna.

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Nakshatra – An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts

05 Oct 24 05:05 PM Exclusive Videos

US recession fears might be overblown

24 Sep 24 01:00 AM Exclusive Videos

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 13 November 2024

Q42024

Q12025

Q22025

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

NEWS FEED

i360 Indices

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

Events

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

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