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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stressed that the central bank must ensure that tariffs do not trigger a more persistent rise in inflation. He also stated that the central bank will balance its dual responsibilities of fostering maximum employment and stable prices. He reiterated that central bank will remain ‘independent’ and described markets as functional and orderly.
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[{"title":"UFI-05.06.22","description":" ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-05.06.22.pdf","durl":"/content/experience-fragments","murl":"","datetime":"05 Jun 22 09:00 AM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-29.05.22","description":" During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-29.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"29 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-22.05.22","description":" During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-22.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"22 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-15.05.22","description":" During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-15.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"15 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-08.05.22","description":" Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-08.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"08 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]}]
CENTRAL BANK ZONE
Reserve Bank of India
MPC reduced repo rate by 25bps for second consecutive time to 6% with a change in stance to ‘accommodative’ to support growth given global headwinds.Stance signals the direction of policy rate in the future (lower or pause) and not liquidity conditions per se. While RBI is looking at keeping liquidity in surplus to the extent of 1% of NDTL (surplus of INR 2.2tn), delinking stance from liquidity gives RBI operational flexibility.
Growth projection for FY26 has been revised lower to 6.5% (6.7% earlier) given impact of reciprocal tariffs on India. However, lower oil prices and policy support should limit the impact with growth. Given confidence on achieving inflation target, RBI has revised FY26 estimate to 4% (4.2% earlier). Given expectation of normal monsoon and current global backdrop, we expect inflation to show downward bias at 3.9% in FY26 before it inches up again in FY27
With balance tilting in favour of growth, we see another 50bps of rate cuts (cumulative 100bps). For deeper rate cuts, real rates have to be lower which implies weaker growth and inflation outlook. We believe India’s medium-term growth trajectory is intact and thus maintain 100bps of rate cuts
Federal Reserve
In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC eased policy rates by 25bps in November while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. The Fed Chair emphasized that more easing could be required to bring the policy rate towards its neutral level.
The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the December policy meeting, although it remains a close call. The FOMC is expected to signal to the market that it will resort to a staggered easing path.
We expect aa further cumulative 100bps worth of easing over 2024 and 2025 resulting in a terminal rate of 3.50%-3.75%
Bank of England
In its policy meeting in November, the BoE cut policy rates by 25bps and re-affirmed that it will resort to a staggered easing profile.
In its next policy meeting in December, the BoE is expected to maintain status quo while providing an unchanged guidance.
The BoE is expected to cut rates by a cumulative 100bps over 2025 and a further 50bps over 2026.
European Central Bank
In the policy meeting in October, the ECB cut rates by 25bps while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. However, it indicated that further easing could continue reflecting concerns about the growth outlook.
In its policy meeting in December, concerns about disinflation and growth could prompt the ECB to cut rates by 25bps.
Our base-case for the ECB the policy rate by a further cumulative 125bps resulting in a terminal rate of 1.75%.
People's Bank of China
The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum down-payment ratio from 25% to 15%.
We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/Calendar%20events09-04-2025.csv
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[{"title":"Navigating Current Global Volatility","description":"In this video, Mr. Prasanna B, Group Head, Global Markets, ICICI Bank Ltd., and Mr. S Naren, Executive Director & CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC, discuss the current global volition in markets across asset classes and the impact of US tariffs on Indian as well as global markets.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/navigating-current-global-volatility.webp","murl":"","datetime":"16 Apr 25 02:47 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/MQh0K5lheS8","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Key economic outlook and market insights by industry experts","description":"The video offers key insights from industry experts on the global and domestic economic outlook, focusing on the trade war’s impact on advanced and emerging economies, and commodities. Additionally, it explores the extent to which the Indian economy may be affected, considering its domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and its dependence on advanced economies.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/key-economic-outlook-and-market-insights-by-industry-experts.webp","murl":"","datetime":"27 Mar 25 03:30 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/JTu9J9j3mlk","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Impact of Budget & Monetary Policy on Markets","description":"Mr. B. Prasanna, Head of Treasury, ICICI Bank, shares insights on India's Budget, which prioritizes fiscal discipline, tax cuts, and capital spending. The RBI responded with a 25bps rate cut, boosting growth prospects. However, global uncertainties from U.S. tariffs are a headwind for emerging markets, driving volatility. Gold remains a safe haven amid market fluctuations.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/concordia.webp","murl":"","datetime":"13 Feb 25 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/BcSJ1RvglXI","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Nakshatra – An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts","description":"ICICI Bank organised another edition of Nakshatra, an invite only HNI customer rendezvous in Kolkata. The event began with a panel discussion on economy and markets. The eminent panellists were: Mr. B.Prasanna - Head – Treasury, ICICI Bank; Mr. Pankaj Pandey, Head - Retail Research, ICICI Direct and Mr. S. Naren – Executive Director and CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC. Ms. Sonia Shenoy – Business Journalist & Financial Educator moderated the panel. Here is a look into the informative discussion.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/another-edition-of-nakshatra.webp","murl":"","datetime":"29 Jan 25 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/jwHZUC_2f8E","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Rupee Vs Dollar: Trade Policies Strengthening Dollar?","description":"B. Prasanna analyses the impact of the strengthening US dollar amid the ongoing Trump trade policies, suggesting it could put further pressure on the Indian Rupee. He highlights global economic factors, including inflation and interest rates, and predicts that the Rupee may continue to depreciate unless there's intervention from the RBI.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/trade-policies-strengthening-dollar.webp","murl":"","datetime":"23 Dec 24 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/oymsINAfBZ0","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]}]
{"GLOBAL FX PROJECTIONS":[{"title":"USD/INR","first":"86.50-87.50","second":"87.50-88.50","third":"88.50-89.50","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"EUR/USD","first":"1.06-1.08","second":"1.08-1.10","third":"1.09-1.11","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"GBP/USD","first":"1.27-1.29","second":"1.29-1.31","third":"1.31-1.33","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"USD/JPY","first":"146.00-148.00","second":"144.00-146.00","third":"142.00-144.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"AUD/USD","first":"0.62-0.64","second":"0.62-0.64","third":"0.64-0.66","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"USD/CNY","first":"7.20-7.30","second":"7.25-7.35","third":"7.30-7.40","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"INDIA INTEREST RATES":[{"title":"Repo rate (%)","first":"6.25","second":"6.00","third":"6.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"SDF (%)","first":"6.00","second":"5.75","third":"5.75","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"10-year benchmark (%)","first":"6.70","second":"6.60","third":"6.60","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"GLOBAL RATES":[{"title":"UST 2 year (%)","first":"4.00-4.20","second":"3.90-4.10","third":"3.80-4.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"UST 10 year (%)","first":"4.20-4.40","second":"4.20-4.40","third":"4.10-4.30","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"German bund 10 year (%)","first":"2.30-2.50","second":"2.10-2.30","third":"2.00-2.20","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"JPY 10 year (%)","first":"1.30-1.50","second":"1.40-1.60","third":"1.50-1.70","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"UK 10 year (%)","first":"4.45-4.65","second":"4.35-4.55","third":"4.25-4.45","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"COMMODITIES":[{"title":"Brent crude (USD/bbl)","first":"75","second":"74","third":"72","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"Gold (USD/oz)","first":"2680","second":"2740","third":"2800","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}]}
IN-HOUSE VIEWS
Last updated: 13 february 2025
Q12025
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Q22025
Q32025
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Q22025
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USD/INR
86.50-87.50
87.50-88.50
88.50-89.50
EUR/USD
1.06-1.08
1.08-1.10
1.09-1.11
GBP/USD
1.27-1.29
1.29-1.31
1.31-1.33
USD/JPY
146.00-148.00
144.00-146.00
142.00-144.00
AUD/USD
0.62-0.64
0.62-0.64
0.64-0.66
USD/CNY
7.20-7.30
7.25-7.35
7.30-7.40
