Want us to help you with anything?
Request a Call back

This field is required Only alphabetes are allowed

Please enter valid number

Please enter valid email

Please enter valid pincode

Thank you for your request.

Your reference number is CRM 786578956

Our executive will contact you shortly

LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

View All

Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

Three Federal Reserve officials on Monday made clear they expect the US central bank to continue cutting interest rates over the next year, but stopped short of saying they are committed to making the next reduction later this month.

14 Hours ago

India’s GDP growth slowed to 5.4% YoY in Q2FY25, led by broad-based weakness in investment and consumption despite government revenue spending seeing an uptick. Exports too have seen a moderation and imports fell as domestic demand was muted. GVA growth fell to 5.6% YoY with sharp moderation in industrial activity even as services activity maintained pace of growth and agriculture sector saw a pick-up in growth compared with Q1.

1 Days ago

India has strongly rejected a counter-notification issued by the US, Australia, Canada, Argentina, and Ukraine at the World Trade Organization accusing India of under-reporting its market price support for rice and wheat. India described the notification as misleading.

4 Days ago

Please share your details to know more about Treasury Products & Services

[{"title":"UFI-05.06.22","description":" ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-05.06.22.pdf","durl":"/content/experience-fragments","murl":"","datetime":"05 Jun 22 09:00 AM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-29.05.22","description":" During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-29.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"29 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-22.05.22","description":" During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-22.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"22 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-15.05.22","description":" During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-15.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"15 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-08.05.22","description":" Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-08.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"08 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]}]

i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

In the October Policy meeting, the MPC kept the policy rate unchanged with a 5:1 majority and unanimously changed stance to neutral. Stance change is supportive of growth going forward and shows MPC is confident of aligning inflation to target (4%) over the medium-term.

While growth and inflation estimates have been kept unchanged for FY25, there is a change in quarterly trajectory with near-term growth revised lower and medium-term revised higher. In case of inflation, March 2025 and 2026 prints are benign at 4.2% and 4.1% respectively. The downward revision in medium-term inflation forecasts shows MPC believes food inflation should ease on the back of above normal monsoon this year and gives it room to support growth when a few data prints have been underwhelming.

US yields have surged after US elections with clear steepening bias visible and dollar is stronger. Given such a move in US yields, it is not easy for MPC to cut rates particularly when inflation is on the higher side of its tolerance band .This makes a case for MPC to move in Feb or Apr but it has ample of room to sound dovish on rates front in the policy in particular when FY25 growth estimate might be revised lower given H1 growth is lower than RBI’s forecast

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC eased policy rates by 25bps in November while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. The Fed Chair emphasized that more easing could be required to bring the policy rate towards its neutral level.

The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the December policy meeting, although it remains a close call. The FOMC is expected to signal to the market that it will resort to a staggered easing path.

We expect aa further cumulative 100bps worth of easing over 2024 and 2025 resulting in a terminal rate of 3.50%-3.75%

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in November, the BoE cut policy rates by 25bps and re-affirmed that it will resort to a staggered easing profile.

In its next policy meeting in December, the BoE is expected to maintain status quo while providing an unchanged guidance.

The BoE is expected to cut rates by a cumulative 100bps over 2025 and a further 50bps over 2026.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in October, the ECB cut rates by 25bps while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. However, it indicated that further easing could continue reflecting concerns about the growth outlook.

In its policy meeting in December, concerns about disinflation and growth could prompt the ECB to cut rates by 25bps.

Our base-case for the ECB the policy rate by a further cumulative 125bps resulting in a terminal rate of 1.75%.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum down-payment ratio from 25% to 15%.

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

[{"title":"Panel Discussion on India: Scripting a Growth Story ","description":"Description: Join ICICI Bank’s Panel Discussion on India: Scripting a Growth Story, featuring industry expert. Don’t miss the opportunity to explore India’s growth trajectory and financial insights.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/panel-discussion-on-India.webp","murl":"","datetime":"02 Dec 24 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/ErX2a6h_qYk","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Market Outlook & ICICI Direct Tools","description":"Shifting global and domestic economic outlook, with varied impact on asset classes in the Trum 2.0 era.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/market-outlook-ICICI-direct-tools.webp","murl":"","datetime":"16 Nov 24 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/cppLjKpj89k","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Views on the global economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna","description":"Mr. B. Prasanna on economy, markets and asset classes at a time when the global monetary cycles seems to be turning.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/opening-frame-v5-with-play.webp","murl":"","datetime":"05 Oct 24 06:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/YmVySfqS_zY","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Views on the Indian economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna.","description":"Mr. B. Prasanna on economy, market and asset classes at a time when the global monetary cycle seems to be turning. ","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/opening-frame-v5-with-play.webp","murl":"","datetime":"05 Oct 24 06:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/PuyzC8iul0s","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Nakshatra – An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts","description":"ICICI Bank organised another edition of Nakshatra, an invite only HNI customer rendezvous in Bengaluru. The event began with a panel discussion on economy and markets. The eminent panellists were: Mr. B.Prasanna - Head – Treasury, ICICI Bank; Mr. Pankaj Pandey, Head - Retail Research, ICICI Direct and Mr. Anish Tawakley, CO - CIO Equity, ICICI Prudential AMC. Ms. Sonia Shenoy – Business Journalist & Financial Educator moderated the panel. Here is a look into the informative discussion.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/nakshatra-banner.webp","murl":"","datetime":"05 Oct 24 05:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/yC3puOpJCsI","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]}]

View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

Panel Discussion on India: Scripting a Growth Story

02 Dec 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Market Outlook & ICICI Direct Tools

16 Nov 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Views on the global economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Views on the Indian economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna.

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Nakshatra – An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts

05 Oct 24 05:05 PM Exclusive Videos

{"GLOBAL FX PROJECTIONS":[{"title":"USD/INR","first":"84.00-85.00","second":"84.00-85.00","third":"84.50-85.50","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"EUR/USD","first":"1.05-1.07","second":"1.04-1.06","third":"1.03-1.05","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"GBP/USD","first":"1.26-1.28","second":"1.25-1.27","third":"1.24-1.25","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"USD/JPY","first":"152.00-154.00","second":"154.00-156.00","third":"156.00-158.00","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"AUD/USD","first":"0.64-0.66","second":"0.64-0.66","third":"0.62-0.64","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"USD/CNY","first":"7.20-7.25","second":"7.25-7.30","third":"7.30-7.35","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"}],"INDIA INTEREST RATES":[{"title":"Repo rate (%)","first":"6.50","second":"6.25","third":"6.00","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"SDF (%)","first":"6.25","second":"6.00","third":"5.75","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"10-year benchmark (%)","first":"6.80","second":"6.60","third":"6.50","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"}],"GLOBAL RATES":[{"title":"UST 2 year (%)","first":"4.20-4.40","second":"4.00-4.20","third":"4.00-4.20","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"UST 10 year (%)","first":"4.20-4.40","second":"4.20-4.40","third":"4.25-4.45","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"German bund 10 year (%)","first":"2.20-2.40","second":"2.10-2.30","third":"2.00-2.20","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"JPY 10 year (%)","first":"0.95-1.15","second":"1.10-1.30","third":"1.30-1.50","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"UK 10 year (%)","first":"4.30-4.50","second":"4.20-4.40","third":"4.10-4.30","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"}],"COMMODITIES":[{"title":"Brent crude (USD/bbl)","first":"75","second":"74","third":"72","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"},{"title":"Gold (USD/oz)","first":"2680","second":"2740","third":"2800","monthrangeone":"Q42024","monthrangetwo":"Q12025","monthrangethree":"Q22025"}]}

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 13 November 2024

Q42024

Q12025

Q22025

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

Any information contained herein, should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation, solution or advice of any kind to buy, sell or otherwise invest or deal in any securities, financial products/instruments or services offered by ICICI Bank or any other entity/person. ICICI Bank or any of its employees, officers and agents are not acting as your financial adviser or in a fiduciary capacity in respect of this proposed transaction with you unless otherwise expressly agreed by us in writing. This content is generic and does not take into account your personal circumstances. Before entering into any transaction related to the information contained herein, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction and should seek your own financial, business, legal, tax and other advice regarding the appropriateness of entering into such transactions.

Thank you for your request.

Want us to help you with anything? Request a Call back

Thank you for your request.

Our executive will contact you shortly

Sorry! Please check back in a few minutes as an error has occurred.

LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

NEWS FEED

i360 Indices

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

Events

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Disclaimer

Want us to help you with anything?
Request a Call back