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Indian Economic Update
IMF reduced its FY26 growth forecast for India by 30 basis points to 6.2%, citing escalating trade tensions and mounting global uncertainty
The HSBC Flash India Composite PMI moved to 60.0 in April, its highest since August 2024. New export orders saw a sharp acceleration, likely driven by the 90-day delay in tariff implementation
The index of eight core industries rose by 3.8% YoY in March. Six of the eight core industries reported a rise in production, while two reported a fall
US Vice President urged India to reduce non-tariff barriers to improve market access for American companies and increase purchases of US energy and defence equipment
RBI April Bulletin stated that amid weakening global economic, India’s consumption and investment are relatively less susceptible to external headwinds noting that there is continued positivity across sectors, with manufacturing showing higher capacity utilisation and improved business sentiments
MPC Minutes show members are focused on reviving growth given increased global uncertainty due to trade war, even as India is relatively insulated, given the economy is largely domestic driven. Members noted recovery in growth in H2FY25 is led by rural consumption, pick-up in capex and resilient services sector
Speaking at an event, Finance Minister said that India aims to significantly boost its manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP from 12% to 23% in the next two decades with focus on 14 sunrise sectors, including semiconductors and renewable energy, supported by PLI schemes.
Global Update
The IMF said that worldwide economic output will slow in the months ahead, as US President's steep tariffs on virtually all trading partners begin to hurt, as global finance chiefs continue seeking deals with the US to lower the levies
Federal Reserve Governor stated that he would support rate cuts if aggressive tariff levels hurt the job market
The Japanese PM stated that it will not keep conceding to the US demands to reach a deal over tariffs. Market focus remains on ongoing trade negotiations that US is having with the EU, Japan, India and several other EM Asia countries
China expectedly kept its loan prime rates unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.1% and the 5-year at 3.6% as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appears focused on stabilising the yuan amid trade tensions with the US.
Equity
The benchmark indices traded positive through most of the week. Developments in the US trade negotiations with China, India and other nations impacted the markets. Strong domestic fundamentals continue to provide support and the sentiment remained upbeat amid persistent FIIs buying. However, the market turned volatile with negative bias towards the end of the week.
During the week, the Sensex gained 0.84% to close at 79212.53 while the NIFTY advanced 0.79% to close at 24039.35.
Debt
Indian G-Sec yield opened lower, falling to a 40-month low amid falling interest rates as more information emerged on MPC’s accommodative stance. Yields moved upwards late in the week, tracking the upward momentum in UST yields driven by the developments in ongoing trade negotiations between the US and its trade partners.
The 10Y benchmark G-Sec was trading at a yield 6.36% of on April 25, 2025 at 16:42 IST.
Oil
Oil prices opened lower but traded mixed through the week, remaining rangebound. Developments in ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran impacted the prices. Significant lowering in US stockpiles increase demand expectations pushing prices, while economic headwinds and possible increase in production from OPEC+ nations limited the prices.
Brent was trading at $65.62 on April 25, 2025 at 16:42 IST.
Gold
Gold prices opened positive crossing the USD 3400 mark but traded mixed through the week. Safe-haven investment demand driven by economic uncertainty from tariff war increased safe-haven demand pushing gold prices upwards. Developments in the US-China trade negotiations impacted the prices through the week. Rise in the US Dollar limited upside but the market remains cautious amid mixed signals.
Gold was trading at $3300.77 per Ounce on April 25, 2025 at 16:42 IST.
Currency
The USD/INR pair traded downwards through the week with INR strengthening, as the dollar index fell amid uncertainty in the US economy. Persistent FII buying through the week and lower crude prices supported INR. RBI continues to intervene and stabilise the currency by limiting volatility in the Indian Rupee. Markets will follow RBI keenly as they bought USD during the week.
USD/INR was trading at 85.45 on April 25, 2025 at 16:42 IST.
April 25, 2025
Source: ICICI Bank Research, Private Banking Investment Strategy Team, Bloomberg and CRISIL.
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The information set out herein has been prepared by ICICI Bank in good faith and from sources deemed reliable. ICICI Bank does not provide any assurance as regards the accuracy of such information. ICICI Bank does not accept any responsibility for any errors whether caused by negligence or otherwise or for any direct or indirect loss / claim/ damage caused to any person, arising out of or in relation to the use of information communicated herein.
