Want us to help you with anything?
Request a Call back
Indian Economic Update
- Latest IMF data projects India's GDP to reach USD 4.3 trillion by the end of 2025, up from USD 2.1 trillion in 2015. At this rate, India is on track to outpace Japan in 2025 and Germany by 2027 and be just behind USA and China
- IMF reported India’s current Real GDP growth rate at 6.5%. GDP per capita was estimated at USD 11,940 in purchasing power parity terms, indicating improved living standards but general government gross debt remains high at 82.6% of GDP
- India’s Manufacturing PMI expanded robustly to print at 57.6 in March while the Services PMI fell to 57.7 in March, resulting in a fall in the overall index
- S&P Global Ratings has revised India’s Real GDP growth forecast for FY26 downwards to 6.5% from 6.7% assuming a normal monsoon & soft commodity prices. S&P expects lower food inflation, tax benefits announced in the Union Budget FY26 and reduced borrowing costs to support discretionary consumption
- Minister of State for Finance has informed in Parliament that since FY15, the government has raised INR 4.37 trillion through disinvestment, with INR 3.3 trillion from minority stake sales in state-run firms and INR 694 billion from strategic sales
- RBI announced the MPC schedule for FY26; the first rate decision will be on April 9. The further dates are scheduled as alongside -- June 6, August 7, October 1, December 5 and February 6
- India is likely to undertake another round of import duty reductions in levy on American imports on MFN (Most Favoured Nation) basis ahead of April 2. The list could cover products, including certain kinds of electronics, chemicals and plastics, besides aircraft, parachutes and cruise ships. India levies duties of 7.5% - 10% on these items.
Global Update
- Credit rating group Moody’s has warned on the US fiscal outlook, saying that the new trade tariffs could hamper the country’s ability to cope with a growing debt pile and higher interest rates
- The US Congressional Budget Office projected significant increases in Federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years, in part due to rapidly rising interest costs, as it sketched out sluggish economic growth and a shrinking workforce
- The US President signed a proclamation to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports, expanding the trade war and setting the stage for an even broader push on levies next week.
Equity
The benchmark indices opened positive and traded upward through most of the week mirroring the Global markets. The main concern was the impending imposition of tariffs on US imports, which impacted the markets. Favourable macroeconomic indicators and high chances of a rate cut attracted inflows into the market.
During the week, the Sensex gained 0.66% to close at 77414.92 while the NIFTY advanced 0.72% to close at 23519.35.
Debt
Indian G-Sec yields traded mixed through the week but moved upwards overall, tracking the increase in UST yields. Despite lingering concerns over systemic liquidity, bond prices improved due to market expectations of a rate cut in the upcoming MPC meeting and a change in policy stance.
The 10Y benchmark G-Sec was trading at a yield 6.58% of on March 28, 2025 at 16:20 IST.
Oil
Oil prices traded with a positive bias through the week. The rise was driven by low reserve levels, fear of tighter global supplies and US President’s threat to impose tariffs on countries importing crude from Venezuela. Despite economic headwinds with increasing concerns over demand levels, supply constraints kept oil prices from falling.
Brent was trading at $ 73.88 on March 28, 2025 at 16:20 IST.
Gold
Gold prices opened slightly lower but traded positive through the week surpassing the USD 3100 mark late in the week. Safe-haven investment demand driven by economic uncertainty resulting from US tariff war and rising tensions in the Middle East and the slump in US dollar supported gold prices.
Gold was trading at $ 3073.85 Per Ounce on March 28, 2025 at 16:20 IST.
Currency
The USD/INR pair traded mixed through the week but Indian Rupee strengthened overall to a 2-month high. The strengthening was driven by the lowering in the dollar index and fresh inflows into Indian markets. The trade war remains a risk but RBI continues to intervene and stabilise the currency by limiting the fall in the Indian Rupee.
USD/INR was trading at 85.46 on March 28, 2025 at 16:20 IST.
March 28, 2025
Source: ICICI Bank Research, Private Banking Investment Strategy Team, Bloomberg and CRISIL.
Disclaimer
The information set out herein has been prepared by ICICI Bank in good faith and from sources deemed reliable. ICICI Bank does not provide any assurance as regards the accuracy of such information. ICICI Bank does not accept any responsibility for any errors whether caused by negligence or otherwise or for any direct or indirect loss / claim/ damage caused to any person, arising out of or in relation to the use of information communicated herein.